Law & Order: Criminal Intent (TV Series) Probability (2003) User Reviews

A Crime For Serious Nerds

[ccthemovieman-1 · 10/10 · 24 December 2006]

"Leo Gergis," a homeless shelter resident, is shown finishing up his physical and giving blood at a hotel room. It turns out he is getting paid for this but is going to pay with his life for it. He's a victim of an insurance scam in which a man "Jack Berard" (Lance Reddick)" finds healthy homeless people, Caucaisons in their 40s, and then bashes their skulls in. He makes each killing look like a freak accident. Each one of the victims had been insured a million dollars each with phony French company connections.

This has happened 14 times all around New York City and has been done well enough, obviously, to avoid detection. That is, until now when Det. Goren, with the help of a nerdy insurance expert (who provides Eames with more of her humorous sarcastic comments) track down the culprits. The problem is there are several people involved, not just the killer, as they find out when the killer is killed.

Mark Linn-Baker gives one of the more memorable performances as the oddball insurance expert "Wally Stevens." In what I thought might be a boring episode about insurance claims turned out to be a fascinating episode, one of the better ones.

Just blown over

[bkoganbing · 8/10 · 15 November 2017]

This is one Criminal Intent episode that will draw the viewer in and leave you emotionally drained. Mark-Linn Baker should have rated Emmy consideration for what he did. As for what he did in the episode only the eclectic mind of Detective Robert Goren could figure this one out.

Someone is killing the homeless of New York. But before doing that they are insuring them for some big bucks. That portion is found out almost by accident, but it sets Detectives Goren and Eames on a whole new line of investigation.

It all traces back to Baker who is a person with Asperger's Syndrome, a high functioning form of autism. When the CI detectives meet up with Baker, the scenes with the quirky Goren and the quirky Wally Stephens, Baker's character are some of the best ever acted in the show's history. Kathryn Erbe's comments about the relationship that is seeming to develop between Vincent D'Onofrio and Baker are some of her best lines in the history of the show.

Baker's breakdown at the climax is at once frightening and saddening. There are very few murderers you feel sorry for, but Baker is definitely one of them.

A must for fans of CI.

Fascinating! Absolutely fascinating!!!

[angryangus · 10/10 · 7 April 2012]

I'm a huge fan of this consistently excellent series and really miss it now that is is finished. Throughout every episode the acting of the leads or 'names' has been the hallmark of excellence but whoever was responsible for the casting of the lesser characters, who in many cases may only have had one line, well....they set the benchmark in believability. Added to this mix is the writing which never drops into the mediocre, something that always happens in long series. That's not to say that there was always a high standard but there was always a good standard of mystery & suspense.

This particular episode, however, was a highlight for me. It is rare for a TV episode to make one sympathetic of a killer but Mark Linn-Baker's portrayal of Wally Stevens self-betrayal did just that. His denouement at the end of the episode was almost too difficult to watch. Vincent D'Onofrio and Katherine Erbe's performances only served to emphasise how great an episode this one is.

The other superb episode that stands out is Series 8 episode 9, Family Values, where once again the ingredients of acting, writing & direction all mesh together to provide something memorable.

Whenever I recommend this series to friends I always ask them to watch these two episodes and generally, unless they've been jaded by the mindless pap served up today, they love it.

Intellectually complex yet emotionally compelling

[rakoenigsberg-235-59315 · 10/10 · 24 January 2015]

This series is really extraordinary, and this is an excellent episode. The logic is sometimes hard to follow (things move quickly from one step to another), but one assumes there is a logic: great deal of intellectual complexity.

But the "kicker"--what holds everything together--is the ending: the emotional conclusion. One may think that the character is "over the top:" to extreme; unbelievable. However, the ending makes sense, emotionally. A lonely man, trying to fill his empty house.

"Law & Order, Criminal Intent" is heads and shoulders above anything I've seen on television: so compelling. But then, I miss Manhattan (where I lived for 30 years) and love the street scenes.

"I didn't know you had an older, geekier brother"

[TheLittleSongbird · 10/10 · 16 April 2020]

While Season 2 was not what one calls a consistent season, did marginally prefer the first one, with some episodes being better than others, the overall quality was never less than solid and the best episodes were absolutely outstanding. "Probability" had one of the more interesting premises of the season, and even more interesting to me was that it had a character that had Aspergers Syndrome (one of many conditions that affects me on a daily basis). As well as liking the show very much, there were high hopes here.

High expectations that were met and exceeded. "Probability" is a brilliant episode and a Season 2, and early season for that matter, high point. It is intense and emotionally powerful stuff, with a climax that left me floored and actually speechless from getting emotional and one of the early seasons' and show's finest ever guest star turns, one that makes one feel both disgust and sympathy for their character (see for yourself, it is not as oxymoronic as it sounds). Have heard criticisms elsewhere about "Probability" "demonising" Aspergers and take issue with that being a long-time sufferer myself. The perpetrator's crimes are truly despicable and nobody could ever condone them, but he actually shows a vulnerable side to him in the climax and he is a more complex character than what it initially seems. There is hardly any lumping sufferers of this difficult and long misunderstood conditions in the same group and stereotyping them, it is actually a pretty balanced portrayal of one extremely flawed but with vulnerability person.

This tidbit aside, and sorry for the irrelevance (did feel it had to be said before it is possibly criticised again for it), there is so much to love about "Probability". Once again, the episode is well made, appropriately scored and directed at a good pace. The writing is taut, sympathetic, sometimes quirky and very intelligent. Really liked Eames' quips regarding her reservations of the chemistry between Goren and Wally, but it is in the climax where "Probability" shines the most. Intense but also very poignant.

Story is hugely absorbing and very complex without being convoluted, some may find it jumpy but to me it was fine. The case is hard-hitting and the procedural elements and how Goren's mind works as usual intrigue. The highlight though is the climax, that really frightened me but also left me in tears and to me actually it did make sense. Superbly written and acted scene. Goren continues to fascinate as a character, but it's the character writing for Wally that really stands out here. He is a very chilling character, one is chilled by some of his dialogue, but part of me felt for him in the climax. Being somebody too who is very flawed (not to this extent though) but also vulnerable, which people have most likely seen in my review writing here.

Vincent D'Onofrio and Kathryn Erbe are superb as ever, especially D'Onofrio with the meatier material, but it's Mark Linn-Baker's episode in the acting department, managing to be frightening but also incredibly affecting. One of the show's best ever guest supporting turns in my opinion. The direction is alert and accomodating.

Overall, brilliant episode. 10/10

One of Criminal Intent's Best!!!

[cliffbeatty · 10/10 · 9 August 2008]

*******!!!SPOILER ALERT!!!*******

"Probability" is one of the most interesting episodes of Criminal Intent I've had the pleasure to have seen. The writing and the plot are fairly standard for this show, though I admit, above average when compared to most TV shows. But the interplay between Eames, Goren and Stevens elevates the episode to a top notch production.

It's understandable, knowing Goren, that he would be fascinated by Wally Stevens and his peculiar behavior (later to be revealed to be caused by Asburger's Syndrome; a high functioning form of autism). Psychology is Goren's forte and Stevens is an extremely interesting subject. Eames is unimpressed and jokingly refers to Stevens as Goren's "buddy". This behavioral triangle makes for some humorous dialog.

I've always appreciated the fine acting done by Kathryn Erbe and Vincent D'Onofrio. I believe their consistent top notch performances are what made this show a huge success. But I was pleasantly surprised by the exceptional performance done by Mark Linn-Baker in his role as Wally Stevens! He created a memorably quirky character while never over-reaching or attempting to draw attention to himself. Watching three great performances in one episode was a real pleasure.

Mark Baker

[bl-63974 · 10/10 · 29 May 2020]

Mark Baker was brilliant ! A complex episode And his portrayal of the character was spot on. If you remember him from his comedy series this was more than A360 watching the episode just for his performance is worth it

First Rate

[urbisoler-1 · 10/10 · 16 April 2007]

I don't understand how Mark Linn-Baker was not nominated for an Emmy Award for his terrific performance in this episode (Probability) of Criminal Intent. Unlike the vast majority of INTENT episodes, Mark stole the show from the quirky D'Onofrio and the wise-cracking Erbe. It is obvious to the viewer that this is so because both Goren and Eames come around to sympathize with villain, but mentally-diseased (Asberger's Syndrome), Wally Stevens. It should be obvious to the regular viewer of Criminal Intent episodes starring Vince D'Onofrio that he would empathize with Stevens because Robert Goren's background includes a dysfunctional family including schizophrenia. IMO this episode compares favorably with the Nicole Wallace (Olivia d'Abo) episodes.

impressed !!

[bobcat-pretzel · 8 March 2007]

I'm impressed with Balki's former sidekick, Mark Linn Baker. Interesting, memorable performance. I never watched the 1st runs, just the syndicated shows. I hope Mark was nominated for an Emmy. Meanwhile, I'm a big Vincent D. fan and I like the interplay between him and Eames - I used to think she was boring but her low key character is a good balance for Vince.

Spoiler: Did you ever notice that whenever there is a recognizable guest star - they "done" it. Guess it's more fun to play the baddie. I thought this would not be the case with Mark since he seemed a little too strange but turns out he was sort of an "idiot savant"